Epidemic size, trend and spatiotemporal mapping of SARS-CoV-2 using geographical information system in Alborz Province, Iran.

BACKGROUND: The first confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Iran were reported in Qom city. Subsequently, the neighboring provinces and gradually all 31 provinces of Iran were involved. This study aimed to investigate the case fatility rate, basic reproductive number in different period of epidemic, projection of daily and cumulative incidence cases and also spatiotemporal mapping of SARS-CoV-2 in Alborz province, Iran. METHODS: A confirmed case of COVID-19 infection was defined as a case with a positive result of viral nucleic acid testing in respiratory specimens. Serial interval (SI) was fitted by gamma distribution and considered the likelihood-based R0 using a branching process with Poisson likelihood. Seven days average of cases, deaths, doubling times and CFRs used to draw smooth charts. kernel density tool in Arc GIS (Esri) software has been employed to compute hot spot area of the study site. RESULTS: The maximum-likelihood value of R0 was 2.88 (95%, CI: 2.57-3.23) in the early 14 days of epidemic. The case fatility rate for Alborz province (Iran) on March 10, was 8.33% (95%, CI:6.3-11), and by April 20, it had an increasing trend and reached 12.9% (95%,CI:11.5-14.4). The doubling time has been increasing from about two days and then reached about 97 days on April 20, 2020, which shows the slowdown in the spread rate of the disease. Also, from March 26 to April 2, 2020 the whole Geographical area of Karj city was almost affected by SARS-CoV-2. CONCLUSIONS: The R0 of COVID-19 in Alborz province was substantially high at the beginning of the epidemic, but with preventive measures and public education and GIS based monitoring of the cases,it has been reduced to 1.19 within two months. This reduction highpoints the attainment of preventive measures in place, however we must be ready for any second epidemic waves during the next months.

Complete genome sequencing and molecular characterization of SARS-COV-2 from COVID-19 cases in Alborz province in Iran.

Iran was among countries which was hard hit at the early stage of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and dealt with the second wave of the pandemic in May and June 2020; however, there are a very limited number of complete genome sequences of acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) from Iran. In this study, complete genome sequences of the virus in the samples obtained from three patients in Alborz province in May and June 2020 were generated and analyzed using bioinformatic methods. The sequenced genomes were positioned in a cluster with B.4 lineage along with the sequences from other countries namely, United Arab Emirates and Oman. There were seven single nucleotide variations (SNVs) in common in all samples and only one of the sequenced genomes showed the D614G amino acid substitution. Three SNVs, 1397 G > A, 28688T > C, 29742 G > T, which had already been reported in February, were found with high frequency in all the sequenced genomes in this study, implying that viral diversity reflected in the early stages of viral transmission in Iran were established in the second wave. Considering the importance of molecular epidemiology in response to ongoing pandemic, there is an urgent need for more complete genome sequencing and comprehensive analyses to gain insight into the transmission, adaptation and evolution of the virus in Iran.

The Immunological Therapeutic Strategies for Controlling Multiple Sclerosis: Considerations during the COVID-19 Pandemic.

A growing body of evidence initially suggested that patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) might be more susceptible to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Moreover, it was speculated that patients with MS treated with immunosuppressive drugs might be at risk to develop a severe diseases course after infection with the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus type 2 (SARS-CoV2). However, the recently published data have shown that MS patients do not have a higher risk for severe COVID-19. Although there is no indication that patients with MS and immunomodulatory/immunosuppressive therapy are generally at a higher risk of severe COVID-19, it is currently being emphasized that the hazards of poorly treated MS may outweigh the putative COVID-19 dangers. In this review, we discuss the challenges and considerations for MS patients in the COVID-19 pandemic.

Effect of Ammonium Chloride in addition to standard of care in outpatients and hospitalized COVID-19 patients: A randomized clinical trial.

OBJECTIVE: The COVID-19 pandemic has called an urgent need for drug repurposing to improve the outcome of the disease. Quaternary ammonium compounds have been demonstrated to have antiviral effects and may be of use against SARS-CoV-2 infections. DESIGN: In this double-blind, single-center study, we enrolled patients with positive PCR test and/or CT findings for COVID-19. The participants of each group were randomly assigned to Diphenhydramine Compound (Diphenhydramine + Ammonium Chloride) plus standard of care or to Diphenhydramine alone and standard of care groups. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality within 30 days of randomization. Secondary outcomes include viral burden, clinical status, assessed by a 5-point ordinal scale, and length of stay in hospitalized patients. RESULTS: A total of 120 patients were included in the trial, 60 of which were assigned to the Ammonium Chloride group. The primary endpoint was not statistically different between the two groups (HR: 3.02 (95% CI, 0.57-16.06; p = 0.195)). Recovery time and viral burden were significantly lower in the Ammonium Chloride group, corresponding to an odds ratios of 1.8 (95% CI, 1.15-2.83; p = 0.01) and 7.90 (95% CI, 1.62-14.17; p = 0.014), respectively. CONCLUSION: The findings of this study advocate the careful addition of Ammonium Chloride to standard of care for COVID-19 patients.

SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in Iran: The dynamics of the epidemic and evidence on two independent introductions.

The SARS-CoV-2 virus has been rapidly spreading globally since December 2019, triggering a pandemic, soon after its emergence. While Iran was among the first countries confronted with rapid spread of virus in February 2020, no real-time SARS-CoV-2 whole-genome tracking in early phase of outbreak was performed in the country. To address this issue, we provided 50 whole-genome sequences of viral isolates ascertained from different geographical locations in Iran during March-July 2020. The corresponding analysis on origins, transmission dynamics and genetic diversity of SARS-CoV-2 virus, represented at least two introductions of the virus into the country, constructing two major clusters defined as B.4 and B.1*. The first entry of the virus might have occurred around very late 2019/early 2020, as suggested by the time to the most recent common ancestor, followed by a rapid community transmission that led to dominancy of B.4 lineage in early epidemic till the end of June. Gradually, reduction in dominancy of B.4 occurred possibly as a result of other entries of the virus, followed by surge of B.1* lineages, as of mid-May. Remarkably, variation tracking of the virus indicated the increase in frequency of D614G mutation, along with B.1* lineages, which showed continuity till October 2020. The increase in frequency of D614G mutation and B.1* lineages from mid-May onwards predicts a rapid viral transmission that may push the country into a critical health situation followed by a considerable change in composition of viral lineages circulating in the country.

Risk and predictors of in-hospital mortality from COVID-19 in patients with diabetes and cardiovascular disease.

BACKGROUND: Diabetes mellitus (DM) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) are present in a large number of patients with novel Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We aimed to determine the risk and predictors of in-hospital mortality from COVID-19 in patients with DM and CVD. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study included hospitalized patients aged ≥ 18 years with confirmed COVID-19 in Alborz province, Iran, from 20 February 2020 to 25 March 2020. Data on demographic, clinical and outcome (in-hospital mortality) data were obtained from electronic medical records. Self-reported comorbidities were classified into the following groups: "DM" (having DM with or without other comorbidities), "only DM" (having DM without other comorbidities), "CVD" (having CVD with or without other comorbidities), "only CVD" (having CVD without other comorbidities), and "having any comorbidity". Multivariate logistic regression models were fitted to quantify the risk and predictors of in-hospital mortality from COVID-19 in patients with these comorbidities. RESULTS: Among 2957 patients with COVID-19, 2656 were discharged as cured, and 301 died. In multivariate model, DM (OR: 1.62 (95% CI 1.14-2.30)) and only DM (1.69 (1.05-2.74)) increased the risk of death from COVID-19; but, both CVD and only CVD showed non-significant associations (p > 0.05). Moreover, "having any comorbidities" increased the risk of in-hospital mortality from COVID-19 (OR: 2.66 (95% CI 2.09-3.40)). Significant predictors of mortality from COVID-19 in patients with DM were lymphocyte count, creatinine and C-reactive protein (CRP) level (all P-values < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that diabetic patients have an increased risk of in-hospital mortality following COVID-19; also, lymphocyte count, creatinine and CRP concentrations could be considered as significant predictors for the death of COVID-19 in these patients.